1. Executive Summary
2025 marks a new stage of comprehensive deepening and quality-driven growth in agricultural economic and trade cooperation between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of Kazakhstan. Against the backdrop of close alignment between the Belt and Road Initiative and Kazakhstan's “Nurly Zhol” new economic policy, bilateral agricultural trade has not only achieved a historic breakthrough in scale, but has also shown a marked structural shift from raw-material trade toward full value-chain cooperation.
◆Key Insight
Current trade growth is driven by three dividends: continued policy dividends (expanded quarantine market access); diversified logistics corridors (return-leg block trains); and deep value-chain investment integration (deep-processing footprint).
2. Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Background
2.1 Strategic Alignment and Policy Environment
As the global geopolitical landscape evolves, food security has become central to China's national security strategy. In 2024, following the signing of the tenth animal and plant sanitary and phytosanitary protocol between the two agriculture ministries, Kazakhstan's market access for agricultural exports to China expanded substantially. To date, 1,948 Kazakh plant-product exporters and 40 animal-product exporters have been approved for the Chinese market.
2.2 Kazakhstan's Macroeconomic Support
In the first three quarters of 2025, Kazakhstan's GDP grew 6.3% and fixed-asset investment rose 13.5% to 13.8 trillion tenge. The government has stepped up investment in agricultural infrastructure and is actively seeking to reduce over-reliance on energy exports, viewing agriculture as a key engine for economic diversification.
3. In-Depth Analysis of 2024–2025 Agricultural Trade Performance
From 2024 to 2025, China–Kazakhstan agricultural trade was characterized by “rising volume and price, optimized structure.” The growth driver has shifted from pure volume expansion to value-chain upgrading.
4. Panorama of Key Bulk Commodity Markets
Grains: Wheat & Barley
- Wheat harvest: ~20M tonnes output in 2024/2025, yield of 1.65 t/ha.
- Export volatility: Short-term swings in early 2025 due to Chinese customs policy and Spring Festival, but +27% over the longer cycle.
- Barley alert: Exports projected to shrink to 1.7M tonnes in 2025/2026, facing competitive diversion to the Iranian market.
Oilseeds: Capacity Release
- Structural upgrade: Exports shifting from raw sunflower seed to sunflower oil and meal.
- Data highlights: Vegetable oil exports +26% in 2024; rapeseed oil +57%.
- Flaxseed: With Russian transit limits, direct rail to China has become the preferred route.
Livestock & Specialty Products
With the sanitary and phytosanitary protocol signed, 40 Kazakh meat enterprises have been approved to export. Imported meat was worth 3.1M USD in 2024 — still small in scale, but with great potential. China has also become the largest export destination for Kazakh honey.
5. Logistics Infrastructure and Supply-Chain Resilience
Return-Leg Block Train Innovation
The “Kazakhstan–Khorgos/Alashankou–Changsha” return grain block train has opened, taking just 15 days end-to-end and fundamentally changing the previously sea-freight-dominated import structure.
Faster “Green Channels”
Rail transit customs clearance compressed to 30 minutes; road-port declaration shortened to 1 day. Khorgos agricultural clearance procedures streamlined to 4 items.
Storage Challenges & Responses
The Alashankou comprehensive bonded zone is being expanded, targeting 4M tonnes of grain handling per year. Digital supply-chain management systems are being introduced to address autumn transport congestion.
6. Investment Cooperation and Industrial Deepening
The second half of China–Kazakhstan agricultural cooperation is a two-way convergence of capital and technology. The model is shifting from simple “buy-and-sell” toward deep “co-construction.”
7. Challenges and Risks
Despite rapid growth, challenges remain, including geopolitical uncertainty, output volatility driven by climate change, and exchange-rate risk in cross-border settlement. A more robust risk-hedging mechanism is needed.
8. Outlook and Recommendations
- Deepen the “contract farming” model to stabilize the supply-chain front end.
- Promote local-currency settlement to reduce USD dependence.
- Build a cross-border agricultural big-data platform for information sharing.